right now president obama is losing independents, not by a little. and the second thing is the notion of conventional wisdom about what happens with undecided voters in an incumbent voters that they tend to break at this point for the challenger. so david, explain to me, and chuck after david explain to me, how those two things can be true. how can it be true that president obama is way behind with independents and also be true if conventional wisdom holds that most undecided voters will break for the challenger, and yet it seems right on the basis of everything that we know that president obama is, in fact, the favorite today? >> right. john, i think it's interesting, one of the things that you hear talking to the obama campaign is where they look at these models of late-breaking undecideds. they also are looking at favorable/unfavorable ratings in some of these battleground states and are seeing, as i think our marist/nbc polls indicated, that in a state, chuck, and correct me if i'm wrong, in iowa where you have mitt romney upside down in his favo